Are Your Safety Stock Levels Suited for Intermittent Data Lead-times?
As a follow-up to my previous article on smarter intermittent demand forecasting, I will now provide an algorithmic modeling approach for setting suitable safety stock levels without normality (Gaussian) assumptions. […]Read more ›
A New (and Smarter) Way to Forecast Leadtime Demand with Intermittent Data – The LZI Method
Forecasting intermittent demand occurs in practice, when creating lead time demand forecasts for inventory planning. creating multiple forecasts of low volume items for a particular period in the future based […]Read more ›
Forecasting with Intermittent Demand – A New Approach
Before making any modeling assumptions, we should first consider an application and examine the underlying historical data. The spreadsheet table shows the demand series for a SKU and location in […]Read more ›
Do You Need Something More Credible than the Croston Method for Forecasting Items with Intermittent Demand?
Data quality in forecast errors and other sources of unusual data values should never be ignored in demand forecast modeling and accuracy measurement, especially when forecasting intermittent demand. Intermittent demand or […]Read more ›
Why the MAPE May Not Give the Accuracy Results You Expect
During the CPDF® professional development workshops on Smarter Forecasting and Planning for supply chain practitioners, I often have a discussion with the participants about measuring forecast error and forecast accuracy. I […]Read more ›
Do We Know What We Are Talking About When Measuring Accuracy in Forecasting?
While facilitating the CPDF professional development workshops on Smarter Forecasting and Planning for supply chain practitioners around the world, I would ask the participants to give me their definitions of […]Read more ›
How You Can Reduce Bias in Forecasts Using Waterfall Charts
If we examine demand forecasts, like the chart above, without having domain expertise or knowledge about the context of the forecasting problem, we still can explore the data patterns for […]Read more ›
Are Your Demand Planners and Management Ready for e-Commerce Forecasting?
In recent times, demand forecasting has become a vital discipline for business planners to master in modern consumer demand-driven supply chain organizations. However, the vital skills necessary for demand planners […]Read more ›
Why MOVING AVERAGE Forecasting Needs to be Swept into the Dustbin
When was the last time you saw moving average forecasts being used for forecasting sales, inventory, production or Supply Chain training and certification programs? Hopefully, not within the past two decades, […]Read more ›
How to Get Insights Into Forecasting the Demand for New Products and Services
One objective of a smarter forecasting process is to identify and evaluate systematically all factors, which are most likely to affect the course of demand for products and services. What […]Read more ›